By Geoffrey R. Norman, PhD, David Streiner
McMaster Univ., Hamilton, Ontario, Canada. Reprint of the 1994 Decker unique. deals a witty, synopsis of biostatistics for the nonspecialist; i.e., a doctor or researcher without history in statistics. contains brief reasons of ways to run particular features utilizing SPSS/PC, BMDP, and Minitab software program.
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Extra info for Biostatistics
53 54 Resampling: The New Statistics This chapter begins the Monte Carlo simulation work that culminates in the resampling method in statistics proper. The chapter deals with problems in probability theory—that is, situations where one wants to estimate the probability of one or more particular events when the basic structure and parameters of the system are known. In later chapters we move on to inferential statistics, where similar simulation work is known as resampling. Definitions A few definitions first: Simple Event: An event such as a single flip of a coin, or one draw of a single card.
Some varieties of poker are so complex that experiment is the only feasible way to estimate the probabilities a player needs to know. The resampling approach to statistics produces estimates of most probabilities with this sort of experimental “Monte Carlo” method. More about this later. 3. Sample space analysis and first principles. A third source of probability estimates is counting the possibilities—the quintessential theoretical method. For example, by examination of an ordinary die one can determine that there are six different numbers that can come up.
Of course, no two deaths—indeed, no events of any kind—are exactly the same. ) In view of the necessarily judgmental aspects of probability estimates, the reader may prefer to talk about “degrees of belief” instead of probabilities. That’s fine, just as long as it is understood that we operate with degrees of belief in exactly the same way as we operate with probabilities; the two terms are working synonyms. There is no logical difference between the sort of probability that the life insurance company estimates on the basis of its “frequency series” of past death rates, and the manager’s estimates of the sales of radios in December, based on sales in that month in the past two years.
Biostatistics by Geoffrey R. Norman, PhD, David Streiner